by PublicABCP
Translated and reviewed by Matheus Lucas Hebling
The study In court we trust? Political affinity and citizen’s attitudes toward court’s decisions, conducted by Carlos Pereira, André Klevenhusen, and Lúcia Barros from Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), investigates how voters’ political preferences influence their trust in judicial decisions involving high-profile political figures. Focusing on corruption cases involving former presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro, the research is set against the backdrop of Brazil’s highly polarized 2022 presidential elections.
The central goal of the study is to understand to what extent citizens’ trust in decisions made by Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) is shaped by political affinity, and how these attitudes affect perceptions of the broader justice system.
To explore this, the authors employed a survey experiment in which participants were presented with fictional corruption scenarios involving either Lula or Bolsonaro. Each vignette outlined possible judicial outcomes—acquittal or conviction—for the political figure. The sample was representative of the Brazilian electorate, and the experiment took place just months before the 2022 election, a period marked by intense affective polarization and deep identification with political candidates.
The experimental design allowed the researchers to isolate the effect of political preferences on respondents’ trust in judicial rulings. The results are striking: citizens are more likely to trust the Supreme Court’s decisions when those decisions align with their political preferences—for example, when a candidate they dislike is convicted or one they support is acquitted. Conversely, trust declines when rulings contradict their preferences.
The study also reveals that both Lula and Bolsonaro supporters tend to maintain a strong belief in their candidate’s integrity, even when presented with corruption convictions. Voters who support neither candidate, on the other hand, showed no significant variation in trust in the STF regardless of the court’s decision.
These findings suggest that trust in Brazil’s judiciary is not immune to political bias. Rather, it is highly contingent on partisanship, with voters more inclined to view the court as fair and legitimate when rulings favor their political side. Moreover, unfavorable decisions are often interpreted as politically motivated, highlighting the fragility of perceived judicial impartiality in a polarized context.
The study also notes that among both Lula and Bolsonaro supporters, there is an expectation that the STF should bar disfavored candidates from running for office—even without clear legal grounds—indicating a broader instrumentalization of judicial institutions in the political imagination of voters.
By demonstrating how political affinity colors trust in judicial institutions, this research sheds light on the challenges facing courts in polarized democracies. It underscores the urgent need to strengthen public confidence in the judiciary, beyond partisan lines, to preserve the legitimacy of democratic institutions.
About the Authors
Carlos Pereira is a full professor at FGV-Ebape and a columnist for O Estado de S. Paulo. He holds a PhD in Political Science from The New School for Social Research. He has been a visiting professor or researcher at institutions such as Stanford, Sorbonne, Oxford, Hertie School, USP, Colby College, Michigan State University, and the Brookings Institution.
André Klevenhusen holds a degree in Social Sciences from the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), a master’s in Social Research and Population Studies from the National School of Statistical Sciences, and a master’s in Public Administration and Government from FGV. He is currently a PhD candidate in Business Administration at FGV and teaches at the German School Corcovado.
Lúcia Barros holds a PhD in Administration, specializing in behavioral studies, from FGV-EBAPE. She also holds a master’s degree in Marketing from FGV-EAESP, a bachelor’s in Public Administration, and a specialization in Marketing from the same institution.
Article Details
Title: In court we trust? Political affinity and citizen’s attitudes toward court’s decisions
Authors: Carlos Pereira, André Klevenhusen, and Lúcia Barros
Publication Year: 2024
Where to Read: Wiley Online Library
